OCTOBER 27, 2024 OBSERVATIONS

Broad equity price action is likely to remain choppy at the top until the election unless the national polling averages start to reflect what prediction markets have already decided: a Trump victory with high probability of a Republican sweep. This is the max bullish scenario for risk assets.

October 20, 2024 Observations

Bullish on risk assets with strong economic data. Oil, rates, and dollar may drop. Trump’s lead grows, boosting markets. Mid- and small-cap equities gaining momentum.

OCTOBER 13, 2024 OBSERVATIONS

The only economic data points to keep an eye on this week are initial and continuing jobless claims. We’ve seen a gradual, linear uptick in continuing claims since mid-2022. If the growth rate begins to curve northward, I will de-risk as this has preceded 6 out of 6 of the last recessions. Until then, the risk trade is on.

October 6, 2024 Observations

A lower CPI could boost rate cut odds despite strong labor data. Dollar rise may spook risk markets if it surpasses 104. Watching cyclicals and oil amid Middle East tensions.

Quarterly Review – Q3 2024

In Q3 2024, equities were choppy, gold outperformed, and high-risk assets like bitcoin stayed flat. The portfolio underperformed but is expected to recover by year-end, depending on election results.