JANUARY 2025 – SO GOES JANUARY SO GOES THE YEAR
The lack of a strong Santa Claus rally has many investors considering a potential top in equites. I am not convinced. Simply put, the Fed spooked markets with a pivot back to higher for longer.
DECEMBER 22, 2024 OBSERVATIONS
Hawkish forward guidance from the Fed surprised markets, leading to a selloff in risk assets. The tone going into next year is higher for longer driven by lingering inflation fears. Markets are pricing a 35% chance that inflation will be 3% or higher by end of 2025.
DECEMBER 15, 2024 OBSERVATIONS
As expected, broad equity assets have continued to melt up and will likely remain in this trend through year end, bolstered by a near guaranteed Fed rate cut coming this week.
December 2024 – The Big Move
December outlook remains bullish: S&P 500 poised to rally, supported by small- and mid-caps, falling rates, and a peaking dollar. Watch for a crude oil rebound and continued crypto gains fueled by bullish seasonality and the Trump trade.
December 1, 2024 Observations
Strong macro backdrop supports an S&P 500 year-end rally. Dollar, rates have peaked, and small-caps are rising. Watch jobs data ahead of a potential Fed rate cut.
