FEBRUARY 23, 2025 OBSERVATIONS
Friday’s selloff in equities came as a surprise, especially considering the week was largely a mixed bag on the economic data front. The intermediate moving average is rising into 294 on the VTI and should provide support moving forward. In the event of any downside penetrations, I expect a quick retracement and eventually a break to new highs.
February 16, 2025 Observations
CPI and PPI surprised higher, but markets rebounded to all-time highs, signaling risk-on sentiment. Strong data supports a 90s-style boom, with tech speculation leading. Equities likely push higher.
FEBRUARY 9, 2025 OBSERVATIONS
A mixed bag out of jobs and unemployment data followed by shockingly high one-year inflation expectations ravaged markets on Friday. Trump’s tariff talk seems to be more than bluster so far which could lead to a repeat of 2018 when the market largely went nowhere before ending the year down over 7%.
FEBRUARY 2025 – WILL QQQ BE MY VALENTINE
The shaky start to the year that had many market participants forecasting a bearish earnings seasons and more downward price movement never materialized. It just goes to show you not to put all your eggs in one “seasonal” basket.
FEBRUARY 2, 2025 OBSERVATIONS
Much like we’ve been seeing lately, a week of higher-than-expected jobless claims was followed by a much lower reading the following week. Unemployment next week will shed light on whether the Fed will be moving more dovish or hawkish should the data deviate from expectations.
