Blog

Observations

JANUARY 12, 2025 OBSERVATIONS

Multiple selloffs in equities following strong jobs and ISM data highlights a general concern of returning inflation at a time when valuations are already quite...

DECEMBER 22, 2024 OBSERVATIONS

Hawkish forward guidance from the Fed surprised markets, leading to a selloff in risk assets. The tone going into next year is higher for longer...

DECEMBER 15, 2024 OBSERVATIONS

As expected, broad equity assets have continued to melt up and will likely remain in this trend through year end, bolstered by a near guaranteed...

December 1, 2024 Observations

Strong macro backdrop supports an S&P 500 year-end rally. Dollar, rates have peaked, and small-caps are rising. Watch jobs data ahead of a potential Fed...

NOVEMBER 24, 2024 OBSERVATIONS

A calm Thanksgiving week ahead. Watch for PCE nearing 2%, a possible DXY blowoff top, and crypto cooling as BTC hits the 100K milestone.

NOVEMBER 17, 2024 OBSERVATIONS

NOVEMBER 10, 2024 OBSERVATIONS

As expected, a republican sweep is leading to strong outperformance in risk markets. The S&P 500 rose 2.49%, the QQQ rose 2.72%, and the IWM...

NOVEMBER 3, 2024 OBSERVATIONS

As discussed in prior weeks, broad equity price action will remain choppy around the top until the election results are clear. The worst-case scenario would...

OCTOBER 27, 2024 OBSERVATIONS

Broad equity price action is likely to remain choppy at the top until the election unless the national polling averages start to reflect what prediction...

October 20, 2024 Observations

Bullish on risk assets with strong economic data. Oil, rates, and dollar may drop. Trump's lead grows, boosting markets. Mid- and small-cap equities gaining momentum.