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FEBRUARY 2025 – WILL QQQ BE MY VALENTINE

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Outlook: The shaky start to the year that had many market participants forecasting a bearish earnings seasons and more downward price movement never materialized. It just goes to show you not to put all your eggs in one “seasonal” basket. As I stated last month, it would be the end performance in January and not the early goings that would form the basis for near term expectations. With the VTI at 13.12% annualized, I see greater risk to the downside but not by too much. The Fed’s monetary policy throughout this year will be the major factor.

Equities: The rally in nearly all equity baskets following the DeepSeek fears show resilience in US markets. Earnings further quelled fears. Bullish.

Dollar: Tariff talk giving the dollar a rally but I do not expect a new high. Bearish.

Yields: Treasury yields across the long end are deteriorating while spreads remain tight but widening. Nothing of concern yet. Bearish yields.

Commodities: As correctly called last week, broad commodities were about to break out and did just that. Now with Trump back in office, it’s unlikely energy goes anywhere but south. Bearish, with a bullish stance on Gold.
Crypto: A tale of two cryptos. Bitcoin remains the strongest asset in the blockchain space and for obvious reasons while alternative platforms and applications dig themselves a deeper hole. Bullish BTC only.

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FEBRUARY 9, 2025 OBSERVATIONS

A mixed bag out of jobs and unemployment data followed by shockingly high one-year inflation expectations ravaged markets on Friday. Trump’s tariff talk seems to...
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