Outlook: The shaky start to the year that had many market participants forecasting a bearish earnings seasons and more downward price movement never materialized. It just goes to show you not to put all your eggs in one “seasonal” basket. As I stated last month, it would be the end performance in January and not the early goings that would form the basis for near term expectations. With the VTI at 13.12% annualized, I see greater risk to the downside but not by too much. The Fed’s monetary policy throughout this year will be the major factor.
Equities: The rally in nearly all equity baskets following the DeepSeek fears show resilience in US markets. Earnings further quelled fears. Bullish.
Dollar: Tariff talk giving the dollar a rally but I do not expect a new high. Bearish.
Yields: Treasury yields across the long end are deteriorating while spreads remain tight but widening. Nothing of concern yet. Bearish yields.
Commodities: As correctly called last week, broad commodities were about to break out and did just that. Now with Trump back in office, it’s unlikely energy goes anywhere but south. Bearish, with a bullish stance on Gold.
Crypto: A tale of two cryptos. Bitcoin remains the strongest asset in the blockchain space and for obvious reasons while alternative platforms and applications dig themselves a deeper hole. Bullish BTC only.