Outlook: New highs across the broad indices on a monthly close basis (SPY, QQQ, DJIA) came in line roughly as anticipated, leaving more room for appreciation in 2024. While a “sell the high” event could make price choppy in the early goings, I believe a series of continuing highs across risk assets will mark the Q1 action of 2024 as market participants embrace the Fed pause and softening inflation.
SPY: A modified cup-and-handle nears completion, offering two scenarios: sell the high or buy the high. Any selloff will prove inconsequential. Bullish.
QQQ: Continues to be strong despite the expansion of breadth across sectors and market caps. Bullish.
DXY: The series of lower lows over the last year should continue. Bearish.
Yields: The downtrend across the curve will provide further tailwinds to duration assets. Bearish yields.
Crude: Appears to be a “sideways at best” scenario. Neutral.
Gold: Continues to press the upper boundary though no catalyst has provided the boon it’s looking for. 2024 will be the year. Bullish.
Crypto: The days of BTC and SOL’s rising dominance are over as a rotation into alternatives will mark 2024. This is my mean reversion call for H1 2024. Expect strength in BTC and SOL absolutely. ETH will dominate both absolutely and relatively. Bullish.