Blog

JANUARY 2024 – WE GOT OUR HIGHS, NOW WHAT?

Outlook: New highs across the broad indices on a monthly close basis (SPY, QQQ, DJIA) came in line roughly as anticipated, leaving more room for appreciation in 2024. While a “sell the high” event could make price choppy in the early goings, I believe a series of continuing highs across risk assets will mark the Q1 action of 2024 as market participants embrace the Fed pause and softening inflation.

SPY: A modified cup-and-handle nears completion, offering two scenarios: sell the high or buy the high. Any selloff will prove inconsequential. Bullish. 

QQQ: Continues to be strong despite the expansion of breadth across sectors and market caps. Bullish.

DXY: The series of lower lows over the last year should continue. Bearish.

Yields: The downtrend across the curve will provide further tailwinds to duration assets. Bearish yields.  

Crude: Appears to be a “sideways at best” scenario. Neutral.

Gold: Continues to press the upper boundary though no catalyst has provided the boon it’s looking for. 2024 will be the year. Bullish.

Crypto: The days of BTC and SOL’s rising dominance are over as a rotation into alternatives will mark 2024. This is my mean reversion call for H1 2024. Expect strength in BTC and SOL absolutely. ETH will dominate both absolutely and relatively. Bullish.

“Nothing on this page constitutes professional and/or financial advice. You alone assume the sole responsibility of evaluating the merits and risks associated with the use of any information or other content on this site before making any decisions based on such information or other content.”

NOVEMBER 3, 2024 OBSERVATIONS

As discussed in prior weeks, broad equity price action will remain choppy around the top until the election results are clear. The worst-case scenario would...