- Exploration of the financial podcast sphere suggests that 4 out of 5 interviewees are bearish. The last time I witnessed this much lopsidedness was December 2022, and we know what happened soon after.
- If money managers are truly positioned for the safety trade, this indicates a melt up scenario with the possibility of a fireworks crescendo as career risk forces bears and neutral participants back onto the long side.
- I expect a furthering of the broadening out that started two weeks ago in the Russell 2000. Though early on the call (I estimated this to begin in March/April) it appears we finally have a strong rotation to capitalize on.
- Economic consensus for the PCE index appears overstated and should come in lower. This would help strengthen the case for continued path to 2% and Fed rate cuts. Queue risk on.