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July 21, 2024 Observations

  • Exploration of the financial podcast sphere suggests that 4 out of 5 interviewees are bearish. The last time I witnessed this much lopsidedness was December 2022, and we know what happened soon after.
  • If money managers are truly positioned for the safety trade, this indicates a melt up scenario with the possibility of a fireworks crescendo as career risk forces bears and neutral participants back onto the long side.
  • I expect a furthering of the broadening out that started two weeks ago in the Russell 2000. Though early on the call (I estimated this to begin in March/April) it appears we finally have a strong rotation to capitalize on.
  • Economic consensus for the PCE index appears overstated and should come in lower. This would help strengthen the case for continued path to 2% and Fed rate cuts. Queue risk on.

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JANUARY 12, 2025 OBSERVATIONS

Multiple selloffs in equities following strong jobs and ISM data highlights a general concern of returning inflation at a time when valuations are already quite...
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