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Blog

June 16, 2024 Observations

  • After last week’s favorable disinflationary data accompanied by outsized unemployment claims, the stage for a fed rate cut rally is back in play. 
  • Of particular interest this week is the Atlanta Fed GDPNow readings on Tuesday and Thursday. The June 7th reading surprised to the upside, leading to cascading losses across risk (crypto was hit hardest and continued to bleed throughout last week). A downward revision is likely given the degree of last week’s weakness.
  • Another point of interest is retail sales. I don’t place much importance on this data due to the propensity for substantial revisions, but I’m sure the Fed will. A mild but not disastrous reading would be bullish.
  • Early signs of rebound inflation is likely to be demonstrated in rising prices within the commodity complex, yields, or to some extent the dollar. To feel good about the long risk trade, I want to see a lid on at least two of these. 

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JANUARY 12, 2025 OBSERVATIONS

Multiple selloffs in equities following strong jobs and ISM data highlights a general concern of returning inflation at a time when valuations are already quite...
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