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June 30, 2024 Observations

  • Sentiment remains overly bearish in the face of short and intermediate tops in yields, crude, inflation and the dollar.
  • The bullish divergence that has sent risk higher over the past month will be further bolstered by the receding headwinds mentioned above.
  • Biden essentially buried himself during last week’s presidential debate. With odds of a Trump presidency now at 62%, market participants will want to reposition for greater risk.
  • Only a risk-off liquidity event could derail the ongoing summer rally. With inflation falling and unemployment rising, the Fed would be quick to stamp out fears, ultimately adding fuel should this occur.

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JANUARY 12, 2025 OBSERVATIONS

Multiple selloffs in equities following strong jobs and ISM data highlights a general concern of returning inflation at a time when valuations are already quite...
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