
Outlook: The hotter than expected CPI print that came in for January only bolsters the call that equities will continue to rise as the macro landscape shifts from a high probability goldilocks period to a potential reflation environment. I expect some rotation out of a high-flying Bitcoin as well as the magnificent seven into small caps as the Russell 2000 breaks out from a near 2-year consolidation. Bearish sentiment echoes Q1 2023 and will prove early and offsides once again as the bulls carry this market higher.
BTC: It’s been a great run, but I feel the end is nigh (temporarily). The run up to 64,000 with more than a month to go before the halving implies a pulling forward of price expectations. Every cycle has experienced a sell off some time around the date of the halving and this year will not be an exception. Blowoff upside to 71,000 is possible before reversal.
QQQ: My call for rotation into small caps does not mean the Qs sell off. Nay, they will continue to march higher. Target 449 then 466.
IWM: Will break out and seek 215 followed by 225.
VIX: Remains muted and will see sub 13 again before too long.
Nat Gas/Uranium: I would play the reversion to the mean trade here. Nat gas to snap back to at least 2.3 while Uranium U308 futures have downside to 75.
Gold/Silver: Bitcoin has stolen the much of the love that would be flowing into gold and silver. A pullback in BTC may coincide with a bounce in either, but a breakout must first occur. Gold looks better than silver absolutely and relatively.
ETH/SOL: The second largest blockchain did not disappoint as predicted last month and notched a 55% gain off expectations of protocol upgrades and a potential ETF. I expect ETH to stall out here and rotation into SOL to send it to 169.