Blog

NOVEMBER 2023 – THE YEAR END RALLY BEGINS

Outlook: The last place you want to sell is on long-term support at a time when bearishness is all your hear from the pundits on TV, despite bullish divergence as a rising dollar and steepening yield curve fail to do much damage to equities. I remain steadfast in my call that rates and the dollar will buckle before equities and the playbook for a year-end rally remains. 

IWM: Hovering around 165 – the zone of the most important breaks/holds going back to 2019. The cluster of high-volume bars is 6 for 7 at calling the low since then.

SPY: The immediate reversal of the breakdown below the 50-week moving average is a tell-tale sign equities are not done. This call is bolstered by the QQQs lack of bearish confirmation in spite of rising dollar/yields.

QQQ: V-bottom formation coming off an FOMC meeting is historically bullish. Targets 372, 387, and then new highs.

DXY: The brief reprieve I called for one month ago has played out, and the next move will be down, not up.

Yields: The short end has been relatively flat and though the march higher by the long end has caught me by surprise, the failure of long duration risk – see BTC – implies the move is closer to its end than its beginning.

Crude: The depth and quickness of the crude fade is bullish for risk and will be a further tailwind should crude fail to reclaim its breakout. 

Gold: geopolitical events in the middle east were a boon for gold just when it needed it. Hold if you have it, otherwise look elsewhere – see BTC.

BTC: My call for another leg up was spot on and despite the 40% rise from September lows, this boy has legs. Targets 39000.

ETH: It may be bitcoin’s year, but ether is holding up remarkably well despite weak seasonality. Targets 2050.

“Nothing on this page constitutes professional and/or financial advice. You alone assume the sole responsibility of evaluating the merits and risks associated with the use of any information or other content on this site before making any decisions based on such information or other content.”

NOVEMBER 3, 2024 OBSERVATIONS

As discussed in prior weeks, broad equity price action will remain choppy around the top until the election results are clear. The worst-case scenario would...