Outlook: The last place you want to sell is on long-term support at a time when bearishness is all your hear from the pundits on TV, despite bullish divergence as a rising dollar and steepening yield curve fail to do much damage to equities. I remain steadfast in my call that rates and the dollar will buckle before equities and the playbook for a year-end rally remains.
IWM: Hovering around 165 – the zone of the most important breaks/holds going back to 2019. The cluster of high-volume bars is 6 for 7 at calling the low since then.
SPY: The immediate reversal of the breakdown below the 50-week moving average is a tell-tale sign equities are not done. This call is bolstered by the QQQs lack of bearish confirmation in spite of rising dollar/yields.
QQQ: V-bottom formation coming off an FOMC meeting is historically bullish. Targets 372, 387, and then new highs.
DXY: The brief reprieve I called for one month ago has played out, and the next move will be down, not up.
Yields: The short end has been relatively flat and though the march higher by the long end has caught me by surprise, the failure of long duration risk – see BTC – implies the move is closer to its end than its beginning.
Crude: The depth and quickness of the crude fade is bullish for risk and will be a further tailwind should crude fail to reclaim its breakout.
Gold: geopolitical events in the middle east were a boon for gold just when it needed it. Hold if you have it, otherwise look elsewhere – see BTC.
BTC: My call for another leg up was spot on and despite the 40% rise from September lows, this boy has legs. Targets 39000.
ETH: It may be bitcoin’s year, but ether is holding up remarkably well despite weak seasonality. Targets 2050.