- As discussed in prior weeks, broad equity price action will remain choppy around the top until the election results are clear. The worst-case scenario would be a contested split election while I believe the most bullish case would be a Republican sweep.
- The employment data was not encouraging this week and has become worrisome. Though headline unemployment remains anchored at 4.1%, I would like to see continuing jobless claims, JOLTs data, and Establishment Survey data all level out from here and reverse course.
- The upcoming week will be the most important week for markets through the end of the year. Outside of the US election, we have potential global liquidity injections coming in the form the lower rates via the Federal Reserve, Reserve Bank of Australia, and the Bank of England.
- The situation in the Middle East must continue its course toward de-escalation if markets are to remain relatively unaffected.
