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October 20, 2024 Observations

  • Economic data was strong last week and only furthers my bullish calls for risk assets.
  • The lack of response from Israel to Iran’s prior attack plummeted oil and will likely be followed by rates and probably the dollar as well.
  • Donald Trump’s lead on Polymarket has increased to a whopping 20%. At this time in 2016, he was down 10%. This could be a blowout election and therefore good for risk.
  • As expected last week, mid- and small-cap equities are seeing positive rotation. I expect this to continue.

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