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September 1, 2024 OBSERVATIONS

  • The S&P 500 is consolidating around prior all-time highs heading into strong seasonality. September and October is likely to be choppy with upcoming elections and surrounding uncertainties. I expect new highs in risk albeit it tempered with frequent retracements.
  • An additional boon to markets would be the continued firming of economic data. This week is especially important given the emphasis on jobs data by the Fed. Should headline unemployment come in below 4.3%, I expect a rally as stronger than expected jobs meets a guaranteed rate cut.
  • Some of the riskier, longer duration plays like bitcoin have not seen strong action since the early part of 2024. Contrary to economic consensus that markets tank after the Fed cuts rate, I expect rate cuts to lift long duration risk.
  • As always, my eyes will be on the lookout for any signs of stress in the private sector. Currently no such warnings exist.

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NOVEMBER 3, 2024 OBSERVATIONS

As discussed in prior weeks, broad equity price action will remain choppy around the top until the election results are clear. The worst-case scenario would...