- Possibly one of the most critical FOMC conferences of the year for risk assets is this week. All eyes will of course be on the decision to cut 25 or 50 bps, but more importantly the rhetoric that comes out of the Fed regarding future rate policy.
- With market participants seemingly split on whether the Fed should continue the fight on inflation, pursue slow immaculate disinflation, or cut aggressively, there will be room for prices to swing aggressively if either extreme is chosen.
- It’s likely prices remain muted until Wednesday afternoon. I feel that a dovish tone will come out of the Fed in continuance of the plan laid out at Jackson Hole and am therefore positioning for a positive response from risk.
- Left tail risk exists if the market is already pricing perfection out of the Fed. This would lead to a sell the news response in equities and other risk assets.