Outlook: Slowing growth, election uncertainties, and seasonal volatility are all coming together to create what I believe will be a difficult, choppy environment for risk over the coming months. The fervor with which broad equity indices rebounded from the Yen carry collapse was a good indication that markets are not weak however. News highs in equities would do well to strengthen my cautious stance.

Equities: The SPY, QQQ, and IWM are up 16.2%, 12.8%, and 6.3% respectively. It’s unclear how much appreciation is left prior to election, however what is clear is the move into value assets with the value/growth gap narrowing significantly since the mid-July peak. I wouldn’t add more risk prior to a new all-time high, but I’m not reducing either. Neutral.

Dollar: We got the dollar collapse but the DXY has run too far and is in a position to bounce back to at least 103. Bullish.

Yields: The short end will pick up velocity to the downside while long dated treasuries will follow at a slower pace. Bearish.

Commodities: Prices finally caved as called for in prior takes, however I don’t believe we’re on the precipice of a cliff in commodities. Another bounce in the SPGSCI to 561 before the major selloff. Bullish.

Crypto: There’s very little to like for the crypto complex heading into one of the worst months for BTC. Bearish-Neutral.