Outlook: Global liquidity injections from central banks are coinciding with a continued reduction in inflation. The Fed seems committed to at least another 50 basis points off the overnight rate before the end of the year, a probability that was recently bolstered by year over year PCE coming in at 2.2%. Meanwhile China has committed to increased stimulus. Inflation hedges like gold, bitcoin, real estate and equities will benefit as long as confidence and employment remain intact.

Equities: Buy one of the baskets and sit on your hands. There’s little to dislike about market conditions heading into October and therefore no reason not to own the SPY or QQQs. Alternatively, IWR and IWM should continue to see positive rotation. Bullish. 

Dollar: With the Federal Reserve committed to an easing cycle in the face of high deficits, it’s hard to argue a bullish case despite the successful test of long-term support. Bearish-Neutral.

Debt: Longer dated Treasury yields saw a bounce after drifting lower all September and will likely continue this pattern throughout October. Bullish-Neutral Bonds.

Commodities: Energy has gone roughly nowhere in September but I expect the recent rally to continue through October. Bullish.

Crypto: The social media sphere is awash with speculators both small and large calling for “Uptober”. With a historical monthly return of just over 20%, it’s easy to see why participants are excited. Given the upcoming election there is likely to be some headwinds to risk. I’m not calling for a selloff, but rather to temper expectations. Bullish.